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Mesoscale Discussion 1558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern IA into northern IL and far
southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 230705Z - 230930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts may
increase over the next couple of hours as thunderstorms strengthen.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been festering over parts
of central into eastern IA over the past few hours in a weak
low-level warm advection regime. Recently, additional convection has
developed across eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI as
a west-southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthened. The 00Z
sounding from DVN and more recent RAP forecast soundings indicate
the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong elevated
instability across these areas. With recent mesoanalysis estimates
showing MUCAPE generally in the 2500-4000 J/kg range and around
30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that can persist
should be capable of producing severe hail. Convective evolution
remains uncertain early this morning, but there is some chance that
the mainly elevated ongoing activity beco*es surface based
along/south of a warm front. If a small cluster can develop over the
next few hours, then a threat for damaging winds should also
increase given the large reservoir of buoyancy available. Possible
watch issuance will largely be tied to observational trends and
whether any cluster can develop and move east-southeastward along
the instability gradient.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42129270 42759104 42899040 42958940 42718871 42358866
            41198894 40818949 40689041 40729139 41249249 42129270