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Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern IL...extreme
southeastern WI...southwestern Lower MI...and northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230606Z - 230830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for
severe hail early this morning. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection has recently developed
over southern Lake Michigan and vicinity. Based on recent VWP
estimates from KLOT, this activity is being aided by a modest, 25-30
kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. Latest MRMS MESH suggests a
couple of the strongest cores may have marginally severe hail.
Current expectations are for this band to shift into parts of
southwestern Lower MI and northern IN over the next few hours.
Around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and modest (20-30 kt) deep-layer
shear should prove adequate for a continued isolated threat for
severe hail. Various RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis
indicate substantial MLCIN is present early this morning where
thunderstorms are ongoing. The potential for strong/damaging winds
should remain low given the strength of the near-surface stable
layer. With expectations that the hail threat should remain rather
isolated/marginal, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   42408838 42628786 42528719 42048486 41268487 41218561
            41588748 42088839 42408838