Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222319Z - 230115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms initiating over southeastern Saskatchewan
are likely to intensify further, and perhaps evolve into an
organizing cluster of storms, posing increasing risk for severe
weather into the 8-9 PM CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has initiated across southern
Saskatchewan, just to the north of the international border vicinity
to the north of Williston.  This is occurring to the cool side of a
frontal zone enhanced by differential surface heating, beneath the
northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed-layer air, where higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be contributing to CAPE of 2000+ J/kg.  This is also
beneath a modest, but strongly sheared, west-northwesterly
deep-layer ambient mean flow (around 30 kt), conducive to organizing
convection, including supercells initially.

A southeastward (rightward) propagation toward the international
border vicinity may coincide with further intensification of ongoing
activity.  And weak low-level warm advection and convergence along
the frontal zone extending east-southeastward across northern North
Dakota may contribute to the maintenance of activity into the
evening hours.

Various model output suggests that forcing for ascent ahead of a
weak frontal wave, aided by a strengthen low-level jet, may
contribute to an upscale growing cluster of storms by 01-02Z.  As
this occurs, the primary potential severe hazards may transition
from initially mostly large hail, with perhaps some risk for a
tornado, to severe wind.

..Kerr.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49450366 49590221 49190047 48749946 48070041 48430181
            48800327 49190397 49450366