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Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast NE into northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222239Z - 230045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms capable of large hail
and severe gusts could increase during the next few hours. Trends
are being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a line
of towering cumulus with hints of glaciation and a recent orphan
anvil along a weak quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across
parts of northeast NE into far northwest IA. Continued diurnal
heating of rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints)
along/south of the boundary could support isolated convective
development during the next couple hours despite only weak
large-scale ascent over the area. 

Steep midlevel lapse rates and large CAPE densities atop the
moist/well-mixed boundary are contributing to moderate/strong
surface-based instability, which co*bined with long/straight
mid/upper-level hodographs would conditionally support organized
convective structures including supercells. In addition, 35-45 kt of
effective bulk shear oriented off the surface boundary would
initially favor separated updrafts and the potential for isolated
large hail and locally severe gusts. Given the conditionally
favorable parameter space, isolated significant hail of 2+ in cannot
be ruled out. 

Considering the weak large-scale ascent, it is currently unclear if
storm coverage will warrant a watch issuance, though trends will be
monitored closely.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42079842 42459773 43039650 43349598 43339542 43229509
            42749493 42209504 41319705 41149793 41359835 41709854
            42079842