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Mesoscale Discussion 2063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Wyoming and southeastern
Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670...

Valid 122236Z - 130000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe gusts and isolated large hail continues
across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KBLX depicts a
north/south-oriented band of organized thunderstorms (including a
semi-discrete supercell structures and a small bowing segment)
tracking northward across portions of northeastern WY and
southeastern MT. One of these supercells produced 2-inch hail near
Sheridan WY at around 21Z. A long/straight hodograph (around 60 kt
of deep-layer shear per RIW VWP) and weak (albeit sufficient)
surface-based buoyancy will continue to support semi-discrete
supercells and small bowing structures, capable of producing severe
gusts and isolated large hail. As strong large-scale ascent within
the left-exit region of a midlevel jet continues to cross the area,
there may be some tendency for localized upscale growth and an
increasing severe-wind risk (aided by steep midlevel lapse rates and
the strong deep-layer flow/shear). Severe gusts of 70-80 mph are
possible with any upscale-grown convection.

..Weinman.. 09/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44620673 45060681 45540654 46310602 46460576 46390538
            46160517 45280544 44650599 44570631 44620673