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Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 121812Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening posing a
threat of large hail and damaging wind.  A severe thunderstorm watch
is likely in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level jet max evident in water-vapor imagery
is currently nosing into southern Montana.  The large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper-level trough is encouraging
early thunderstorm initiation in northern Wyoming.  Although this
development is preceding peak diurnal heating, strong forcing is
likely to encourage maintenance and additional development over the
next few hours.  Continued destabilization across eastern Montana
will result in a modestly unstable environment (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE)
this afternoon with favorable deep-layer shear (~50 knots)
characterized by long, straight hodographs.

Convection-allowing models suggest that storms will initially be
supercellular posing a threat for severe hail and isolated wind
gusts.  Over time, the storms are expected to evolve into hybrid
bowing clusters as they move to the north-northeast.  Eventually,
storms are expected to grow upscale further posing a threat for
severe winds, including the potential for significant severe gusts
(i.e., 65 knots).  Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch is likely to
address this threat.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44740870 45980793 46840743 47370657 47510543 47250477
            46900428 46190419 45410441 44760524 44270601 43650779
            43920852 44740870