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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes/additions were needed
to the outlook with this update. In addition to the low-end/
localized convective concerns described below, a couple dry
microbursts could acco*pany high-based thunderstorms developing over
the higher terrain in portions of Southern CA this afternoon. While
weak deep-layer flow/shear will limit thunderstorm
organization/longevity here, a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer
(temperatures around 100 F), and lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will
still favor a few robust (albeit short-lived) storms capable of
locally strong gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/08/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface observations show a nearly stalled front over north
FL. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass south of this
boundary will likely encourage the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern and central
FL Peninsula. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any
downdrafts, the presence of poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder
updraft acceleration and overall convective intensity.

Even with upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the West,
high-based convection may develop this afternoon over the
southern/central Rockies, and perhaps into the adjacent High Plains
along/near a weak lee surface trough. Limited low-level moisture and
generally weak effective bulk shear over these regions will likely
preclude an organized severe threat, although strong winds may occur
with any convection that can be sustained.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the Pacific Northwest this morning. This feature will move
generally east-northeastward towards the northern Rockies through
the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across interior
portions of the Northwest this afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough. But, rather modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints
generally in the 30s/40s F) should hinder the development of any
more than weak instability. Along with only modestly enhanced
mid-level flow, the limited instability is expected to keep any
severe wind threat with convective downdrafts across eastern WA/OR
into ID and northern NV/UT quite sparse.