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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday across the Gulf
Coast region and from the Four Corners northward into the
north-central U.S. No severe threat is expected across the U.S.
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as
upper ridging prevails over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Surface
high pressure will promote cool and stable conditions from the
Midwest to the East Coast, limiting thunderstorm potential. However,
orographic lift over the higher terrain in the Interior West, as
well as surface lee troughing in the central and northern Plains,
will promote at least isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Steep lapse rates will overspread
the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley regions by afternoon,
promoting at least moderate instability, though the lack of
low-level moisture should limit severe potential. 

The heating of rich low-level moisture along the Gulf Coast will
encourage scattered thunderstorm development. By Tuesday, a tropical
storm is likely to develop to the southeast of the TX coastline (per
latest NHC forecast). The probable track of this developing tropical
storm suggests that the more organized convection should remain
offshore through Tuesday, which should keep any severe threat to a
minimum.

..Squitieri.. 09/08/2024