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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

Minor changes were made to the ongoing dry thunderstorm area in the
Northwest based on recent guidance. See the previous discussion for
more details.

..Wendt.. 09/07/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/

...Synopsis...
The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland
Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected
to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated
with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest
and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to
15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm
temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values
below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and
Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with
areas of dry fuels. 

Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap
winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as
stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will
eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time,
potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather
concerns.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves
inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and
mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into
the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings
suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to
limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm
potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than
20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop
receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest
across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern
ID and far southwestern MT.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the
southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger
flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower
storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few
drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive
fuel beds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...