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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few
strong gusts could acco*pany the more intense storms.

...Northeast...
A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today,
acco*panied by showers and thunderstorms.  Extensive cloud cover in
advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization,
however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop
from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this
afternoon.  Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move
east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. 
Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe
potential.

...Central High Plains...
Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough
that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this
afternoon.  Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level
lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000
J/kg.  Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a
northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening,
and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for
localized strong wind gusts.  Thunderstorm potential may extend
eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level
jet strengthens.  The overall coverage of any severe potential
remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. 

...Interior Northwest...
The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this
morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest
large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads
inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce
limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns.  

...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity...
Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of
stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty
outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer.

..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024