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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and
hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central
Colorado into northern/central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward
through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over
the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central
Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave
trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is
forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad
central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great
Lakes and into eastern Ontario. 

Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this
shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending
southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This
front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent
surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be
mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater
thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern
Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough
continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. 

Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to
abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints
reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across
FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as
well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded
downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX
and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the
Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse
and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area.

...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains...
Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal
airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High
Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid
50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain.
Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to
destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool
temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface
easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will
contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong
enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible
across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular
development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk
thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move
eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024