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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward
across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening
shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the
central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the
Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains
during the afternoon. 

...Southern Rockies and High Plains...
A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast
New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough
advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts
with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across
northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with
this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of
deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization
and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also
possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the
potential for large hail. 

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity
to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height
falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which
should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold
front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show
limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest
effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to
severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to
remain limited/isolated.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2024