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Mesoscale Discussion 2042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Carolina into
southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011853Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may produce strong to locally
damaging winds through the remainder of the afternoon. A watch is
not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Amid a weak mid-level lapse rate environment, storms
that had initially formed on differential heating boundaries have
now begun to cluster  and show some modest signs of deepening. With
cloud cover having mostly dissipated, temperatures have risen into
the upper 80s/low 90s F in northeast North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates could promote
strong/damaging outflow gusts as convection propagates
east-northeast. Weak deep-layer shear and lapse rates aloft will
limit overall storm intensity/organization.

..Wendt/Bunting.. 09/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36927813 36917757 37047694 36997647 36897625 36527617
            35847648 35637782 35807878 36057917 36437926 36767891
            36927813