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SPC MD 1540

SPC MD 1540

[html]MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
       
MD 1540 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into northern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212159Z - 212330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gust potential will continue with
ongoing storms over the next few hours. However, the severe threat
is expected to remain more isolated and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells have beco*e
established across portions of ND over the past couple of hours,
with a more sustained supercell structure recently producing
significant severe (2+ inch) hail. Forcing is subtle, as these
storms are developing with the aid of a glancing weak 500 mb impulse
now traversing the ND/MN border. RAP forecast soundings show
elongated, rather straight hodographs amid 8-9 C/km tropospheric
lapse rates, supporting organized storms structures capable of
sustaining mid-level rotation. Given a well-mixed boundary layer
extending up to 700 mb, severe gusts are also possible. The
localized, isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW
issuance is currently not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47330213 46749859 46199765 45619768 45429801 45359943
            45690086 46150186 46310200 46700221 47330213


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Source: SPC MD 1540 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1540.html)