Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...western and central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 212151Z - 212345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Uncertainties remain concerning lingering mid-level
inhibition.  However, the environment appears at least potentially
conducive to substantive further intensification of ongoing storms
during the next few hours.  Isolated supercells are possible, and
the evolution of an upscale growing cluster with increasing
potential to produce strong surface gusts might not be out of the
question near/north through northeast of North Platte by 00-02Z.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have initiated in response to
strong daytime heating and perhaps forcing associated with a weak
mid-level perturbation migrating around the northeastern periphery
of large-scale ridging centered over the Great Basin.  This has
occurred largely within the more strongly heated and deeply mixed
boundary layer to the east of a weak surface low embedded in the lee
surface troughing across the Nebraska Panhandle.  However, 10-20 kt
deep-layer westerly mean flow is aiding propagating into and along a
zone of strengthening differential surface heating, where higher
boundary-layer moisture content is contributing to CAPE on the order
of 1000-2000+ J/kg.  This is also beneath a remnant plume of very
warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, but inhibition is
weakening in response to continued daytime heating.

Despite the generally weak mean flow, pronounced turning of winds
with height appears to be contributing to at least moderate shear
sufficient for organizing convection, initially including
intensifying supercells.  Given the environment, the evolution of an
upscale growing mesoscale system might not be out of the question,
much as suggest by the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42700158 42510017 42229901 41149935 40990079 41370226
            42050268 42700158