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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada
into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the
larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move
across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New
England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic,
OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level
cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move
northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. 

...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related
precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid
Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization
potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness
remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association
with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will beco*e sufficient
for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind
threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient
destabilization can occur. 

Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible
into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with
scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening.
Deep-layer flow will be weaker co*pared to areas to the north, but
will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters
capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and
evening. 

...Arizona...
Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development
across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There
may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower
elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though
uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe
potential within this regime.

..Dean.. 08/30/2024