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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are
possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the
Northeast on Saturday.  A few strong/severe gusts may also occur
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern
Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on
Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from
eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level
ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front
will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the
afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and
attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the
northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. 

...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon
along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast
into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement
between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger
instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of
instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the
central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely
organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a
threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. 

Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH
Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively
large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a
couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind
potential. 

...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI...
While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture,
strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave
trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection
near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least
isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively
cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to
near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. 

...Arizona...
Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely
scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial
development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It
remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient
for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations,
though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow
regime.

..Dean.. 08/30/2024