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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift
eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while
upstream ridging prevails over the West.  During the second half of
the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should
near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast.

At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to
the Southeast will continue to dissipate.  Meanwhile, a
second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the
Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually
overtaking the initial/weakening front.  By Monday morning, the
front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic
Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas.

...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly
eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians
Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization
ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated
convection lingering across the area at the start of the period.

Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along
the advancing front co*bined with favorably strong flow aloft --
particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving
storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon
and into the evening.  While there are hints that sufficient
moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more
substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield
greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing
convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most
prudent at this time.

..Goss.. 08/30/2024