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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the
northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the
broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly
southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes
region.

At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from
the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual
southeastward progress across the Appalachians.  Meanwhile, a
stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned
short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of
Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the
period.  Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the
central Plains.

...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast...
As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great
Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of
the frontal zone.  Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas
from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak.
Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across
areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective
intensity.  As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to
remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce
only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania
vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at
this time.  Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be
possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/29/2024