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Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Virginia and central
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 211638Z - 211845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon
across central portions of North Carolina and Virginia.  Potential
for locally damaging winds with these storms may warrant WW
consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a relative minimum
in cloud cover from portions of central North Carolina northward
across central Virginia, south of the northern Virginia cold front
and northeast of an MCV crossing west-central North Carolina.  With
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across this region,
heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range.  

Initial development of storms within this destabilizing environment
is occurring near the aforementioned MCV.  With time, storm coverage
is expected to expand northeastward to the vicinity of the slowly
southeastward-advancing cold front.  Given moderate westerly flow at
low to mid levels, and some increase in the mid-level winds with
time, organized storms -- and some later upscale growth into bands
-- is expected.  Given acco*panying/increasing potential for locally
damaging wind gusts, WW may beco*e needed over the next hour or so.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35398098 36198016 36397956 36997906 37817891 38057885
            38867715 38647624 37717624 36577687 35427899 35398098