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Mesoscale Discussion 2004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651...

Valid 262344Z - 270115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 651. A bow echo MCS may develop soon and produce a focused
corridor of severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Multiple HP supercells have merged over the past hour
into an MCS, with KMPX radar data showing more low-level outflow
along the leading edge of these storms. Both KMPX and MRMS mosaic
radar imagery show some bowing structure to this MCS, with
cross-sections of KMPX velocity data showing a possible rear-inflow
jet beco*ing established in the MCS's trailing precipitation region.
This MCS is poised to track eastward along a buoyancy gradient
delineating a modestly vs. extremely unstable environment. Low-level
shear is weak to modest at best ahead of this MCS, so it is unclear
if an intense bow echo can beco*e established. Nonetheless, given
extreme buoyancy, at least some bow echo organization is likely over
the next couple of hours, acco*panied by a severe gust threat. A
focused corridor of damaging winds cannot be ruled out, and a couple
of the stronger gusts may reach or exceed 75 mph.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44079473 44699396 45429316 45529242 45239186 44799174
            44379222 44089281 43909337 43889435 44079473