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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec
Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front
moves south and extends from southern New England west into the
mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Farther west, an
upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the
international border/MT, will move east across the northern High
Plains and western Dakotas.

...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic...
A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of
the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong
afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley,
and moderate instability farther east.  Frontal position remains
somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day
storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the
greatest severe potential.  Thunderstorms should develop or
re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and
pose a risk for damaging gusts.  The greater severe hail potential
should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE
may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into
east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening.  

...Northern Plains...
Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the
day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level
lapse rates contributing to moderate instability.  Strengthening
low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low
should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to
develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone.
Deep-layer shear will beco*e supportive of severe storms capable of
severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight
hours.

..Bunting.. 08/26/2024