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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for severe gusts will continue across parts of Montana
through mid evening. Other strong to severe storms remain possible
across eastern Utah and western Colorado, and also across the
central High Plains.

...Montana...
Scattered thunderstorms with a history of producing measured severe
gusts are quickly moving northward across northwest MT early this
evening, and will soon move across the international border. Farther
east, a storm cluster across central MT may continue to pose a
threat of severe gusts as it moves through a relatively warm and
well-mixed environment. A separate cluster of storms across
northeast MT may continue to pose a short-term threat of isolated
hail and severe gusts, before increasing MLCINH reduces convective
potential later tonight. 

...Central High Plains into western MO...
A small outflow-driven cluster of storms is moving across parts of
the central High Plains early this evening. A short-term threat for
isolated severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through mid
evening, as the cluster moves through a moderately unstable and
marginally sheared environment. Increasing MLCINH with time may
eventually result in a weakening trend, though stronger elevated
convection may persist through the night as the remnant cluster
moves eastward. 

Some increase in elevated storms will also be possible near the end
of the period across western MO, within a low-level warm-advection
regime. Moderate MUCAPE could support a few stronger storms with
small hail and gusty winds, but severe potential prior to 12Z within
this regime appears relatively limited.  

...Eastern UT into western CO...
A couple stronger storms may persist through at least part of the
evening from eastern UT into western CO, where MLCAPE in excess of
500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear may support transient
supercell structures capable of isolated hail and strong/severe
gusts.

..Dean.. 08/24/2024