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Mesoscale Discussion 1982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far southeast
Wyoming...and western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232253Z - 240030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may consolidate into a small cluster, posing a some
threat for a few damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance not anticipated
at this time, though convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection initiating off the high terrain areas of
north-central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming has drifted eastward
amid marginally enhanced westerly mid-level flow. This activity is
increasing in intensity as it encounters richer low-level moisture,
characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the low to mid
60s F within easterly upslope flow and greater instability (MLCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg) amid increasing surface temperatures.

Storm intensity is expected to continue increasing in the short term
as the activity moves into more favorable airmass. The co*bination
of speed/directional shear is yielding effective bulk shear near 35
kt across the region, which may help to promote at least transient
storm organization. Recent HRRR runs suggest a cluster may emerge
over the next hour or so, which could pose at least a brief damaging
wind/hail threat over northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle
in the short term. However, increasing convective inhibition into
the evening is expected limit the eastward extent of the severe
threat, as supported by recent HRRR runs.  For now, watch issuance
is unlikely but convective trends will be monitored.

..Karstens/Gleason.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39560340 39600417 40760458 42660391 42780226 41510116
            40310139 39500263 39560340