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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains
area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential
southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday.

...Northern Plains...
An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the
Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains
through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across
MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the
Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to
support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective
deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the
cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a
moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe
storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late
afternoon.

Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of
an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may
yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail.
Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase
in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion.

...Central Rockies/Plains...
Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the
front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level
winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal
instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected.
Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a
greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply
mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over
the higher terrain of NM/CO.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2024