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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the
Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small
area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over
parts of western Missouri.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with
the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest
500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area,
extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold
from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT
into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the
western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday
morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east
across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over
AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds.

Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the
upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer
and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an
unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over
western MO and toward the mid MO Valley.

...Four Corners to the central High Plains...
A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is
also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer
effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor
scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early
afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending
southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will
favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable
diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be
conducive for strong wind gusts. 

...Parts of central and western MO early...
Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust
cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered
over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening
low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of
storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of
western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear
will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief
hail.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2024