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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms with severe wind gusts and some hail are
possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies,
southeast Arizona to extreme southwestern New Mexico, and parts of
the High Plains.

...Intermountain West to northern Rockies...
The lead portion of an upper trough centered along the coastal
Pacific Northwest will shift north-northeastward over the northern
Intermountain region in tandem with the exit region of a
strengthening mid/upper-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected in this regime preceding the Pacific Coast trough, with
initial development over the higher terrain ahead of the surface
cold front. Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be
possible, with the potential for a more focused corridor of stronger
wind gusts across northwest/north-central Montana late this
afternoon through early evening.

Additional thunderstorms should form this afternoon across
east/northeast Oregon, northern/eastern Idaho, to western Wyoming,
and southeastward into Utah/western Colorado, as eastern fringes of
large-scale ascent preceding the Pacific Northwest trough and
embedded shortwaves overlie destabilizing, elevated terrain.
Throughout the corridor, sufficient deep-layer shear (30-45 kt)
should exist for organized multicells and small
bowing/outflow-driven clusters, and perhaps a few supercells, with
some hail and severe-caliber wind gusts possible.

...High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over
the central/northern Rockies, as well as near the lee trough over
eastern Montana this afternoon, with another favored corridor across
the central High Plains including northeast Colorado/western
Nebraska. Activity should move east-northeastward across the
adjoining High Plains. This convection will encounter a diurnally
destabilizing, well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse
rates, supporting isolated severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail
also will be possible.

Strongly difluent mid/upper-level flow will exist over most of this
corridor, between the Pacific Northwest cyclone and the southern
Plains anticyclone, with speeds generally increasing northwestward
and low-level moisture greater southward across the central High
Plains. Still, sufficient moisture should persist near the Montana
lee trough, along with enough veering with height over the entire
area to yield enough deep shear (30+ kt effective-shear magnitudes)
for organized convection.

...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon with a relatively moist air mass and ample
insolation. Increasing mid-level southerlies around the western rim
of the anticyclone should enable 20-30 kt effective-shear
magnitudes, and enough northward storm motion to augment already
strong downbursts from the most intense cells locally. An instance
or two of marginally severe hail could also occur.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/23/2024