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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts
of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise
on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south
corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of
the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate
instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by
afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western
edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the
western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, co*bined with
steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat
for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any
severe threat is expected to be marginal.

...Four Corners...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain
West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four
Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where
destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region
Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners
vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also
forecast to beco*e steep from the surface to 700 mb. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally
severe gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2024