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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through
the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank
of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the
West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several
embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the
end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast
supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with
continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated
to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible.

...Northwest and Great Basin...
Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place
over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow
aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the
southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are
possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID
through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds
overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently,
though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support
potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and
into the weekend.

Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the
Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a
plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest
ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with
isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence
is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts
of northern and central OR through the end of the work week.
However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels
remains uncertain.

..Lyons.. 08/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...