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Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...Virginia and portions of North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191924Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will have potential to
produce downbursts with strong to severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage across
Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon as lift from a mid-level
trough overspreads a cold front across the region. Breaks in morning
cloud cover have allowed for sufficient daytime heating and
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with low-level lapse rates
around 8 C/km. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is analyzed in RAP
objective analysis. While deep layer shear is weak, steep lapse
rates and precipitable water values above 1 inch will support
potential for a few strong storms with potential for downbursts
capable of strong to severe gusts. Overall, this threat will likely
remain too localized for watch issuance.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36117983 36997936 38257821 38977726 39367670 39577629
            39397579 38517527 37817552 36627595 35907616 35037641
            34857648 35387934 36117983