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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to potentially scattered storms will be possible on
Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Severe winds and
large hail could occur. Marginally severe storms will be possible
westward into central Montana and southward into the central High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will continue across portions of the Western
U.S. A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to lift northeastward
through the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A surface low will deepen near
the Montana/North Dakota border with a lee trough extending into the
central High Plains.

...Montana into North Dakota...
Convection is likely to form within the higher terrain of southwest
Montana. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but buoyancy will be weak
to modest. Strong/severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
possible. Greater uncertainty exists in the exact scenario for the
Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. With the surface low
deepening, a few storms could initiate during the
mid/late-afternoon. These storms would have a greater chance at
maintaining a supercellular mode. Severe wind gusts and large hail
would be the main hazards with this scenario. However, mid-level
heights will be mostly neutral through the day before modest falls
occur by early evening and low-level forcing will be limited as
well. A second possibility is for activity in Montana to move into
the border region during early/mid-evening. Severe winds would be
the primary hazard with what would likely be outflow-dominant
storms. Given the late timing of these storms, it is not certain how
much severe coverage there would be. The 15% severe probability area
will be maintained this cycle with guidance hopefully providing more
clarity in the co*ing days.

...Black Hills into central High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible within the lee
trough. Shear will be weaker with southern extent. A few severe
gusts and marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest
storms during the afternoon.

...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Some convection may be ongoing in eastern South Dakota into southern
Minnesota early in the period. Some outflow can be expected with
this activity. With the MCV, flow aloft will be enhanced into
eastern Nebraska. While a conditional threat for a strong/severe
storm exists, low/mid-level forcing will be weak and storm
initiation is far from certain.

..Wendt.. 08/19/2024