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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds remain
possible into tonight along an axis from eastern Kansas into
Mississippi, then extending eastward into the Carolinas and Mid
Atlantic region. A couple severe wind/hail producing storms may
persist across the northern Rockies, with a couple of storms
crossing the international border into North Dakota.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge persists across the central U.S. as a mid-level
trough meanders toward the Atlantic from the eastern U.S. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms (some strong to occasionally severe)
continue to percolate in intensity all along the periphery of both
the upper trough and ridge, from the eastern Seaboard to the
northern Rockies. Moderate to strong buoyancy should persist for at
least a couple of hours past sunset, promoting continued severe
wind/hail potential with the stronger storms.

The primary changes to the outlook were to trim severe probabilities
across portions of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and the central
Rockies, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms have diluted
buoyancy. Otherwise, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, driven
by wind/hail, were added to parts of north-central ND, where a few
southward-surging supercells may cross the international border with
a severe threat before nocturnal cooling and associated MLCINH help
weaken the storms.

..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024