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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central
High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday.

...Northern/central High Plains...
In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is
consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This
feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder
threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level
ridge will likely beco*e centered along the MT/Dakotas border area,
emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective
signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a
conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe.
Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains
apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms
along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for
peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after
coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the
level 1-MRGL risk.

Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern
Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse
embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on
Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the
international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should
strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding
increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the
evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains
buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop
with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This
warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk.

..Grams.. 08/18/2024