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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF
EASTERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon
into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is
evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon
to early evening.

...Synopsis...
A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over
the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High
Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses,
influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped
mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. 

...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West...
A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should
evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the
mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains
and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to
late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a
broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT,
and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the
northern/central High Plains.

Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively
modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely
to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe
gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible,
mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to
larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving
supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the
Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow
enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup
could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively
warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2
inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. 

...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England...
While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1,
embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still
richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front.
Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and
MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC.
Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree
damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon.

...North FL vicinity...
Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of
larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the
coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies
near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should
support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon.
Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. 

...LA vicinity...
A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe
storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc
of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of
elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts
of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the
downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until
afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast.
There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop
during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone
after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of
moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential
for an isolated severe wind/hail threat.

..Grams.. 08/18/2024