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Mesoscale Discussion 1940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...South-Central SD...North-Central/Central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...

Valid 181050Z - 181245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts will continues
across far south-central South Dakota and north-central/central
Nebraska for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Lead supercell within the elevated cluster of showers
and thunderstorms extending from central SD into far north-central
NE has maintained its intensity over the past hour while much of the
other convection has weakened. Organized character of this storm
suggests it will remain strong as it continues southeastward into
more of north-central NE over the next hour or so. Thereafter,
displacement from the warm-air advection responsible of this storm's
initiation could result in a gradual weakening. Until this weakening
begins, both large hail and strong gusts are possible with this
storm.

Farther southwest (i.e. across central NE), elevated thunderstorms
continue to push eastward into central NE. These storms developed
along the leading edge of the greater large-scale forcing for ascent
attendant to a shortwave trough emerging into the central High
Plains. Despite moderate buoyancy, these storms have been slow to
strengthen. Some strengthening is possible over the next hour or so
as forcing for ascent persists and vertical shear increases
slightly. Large hail is the primary risk with these storms.

..Mosier.. 08/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43830005 43739840 42689760 41229830 41160076 43180075
            43830005