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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States
to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday.

...Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic States...
A persistent, slow-moving mid/upper trough from the eastern Great
Lakes to the southern Appalachians should amplify slightly as a
mid/upper jetlet digs into the basal portion of the trough. This
will result in the belt of enhanced northwesterly to
west-southwesterly mid-level flow beco*ing centered across the
Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift
east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will
largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before
trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. 

Hot temperatures from 95-103 F are expected at peak heating along
the trailing portion of the front west of the Carolinas. This should
yield moderate to large buoyancy amid moderate northwesterly
deep-layer shear. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated towards late afternoon along the weakly convergent
front. While severe hail is possible, the rather warm thermodynamic
profile should largely support a primary threat of scattered
damaging winds from strong to severe wind gusts. Confidence is below
average in where south-southeast moving clusters should develop, so
have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk despite some embedded
areas likely not having thunder occur. 

Convective coverage may beco*e widespread across parts of the Lower
Mid-Atlantic States where larger-scale ascent with stronger
low-level convergence is expected. Although deep-layer shear should
be co*paratively weaker along with poor mid-level lapse rates, rich
boundary-layer moisture and adequate heating should be sufficient
for a scattered wind damage threat. Strong to localized severe gusts
with slow, eastward-moving multicell clusters will be possible, and
the level 2-SLGT risk has been expanded north.

...Central Plains and the Black Hills...
A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains
between the trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific
Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will
persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest
northwesterly mid-level flow regime. At least isolated elevated
convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be
ongoing at 12Z Sunday across central parts of NE/SD. There's a low
probability that this activity could strengthen during the day with
a primary threat of isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks
southward, or additional isolated surface-based storms may form
within the lingering differential heating zone later in the
afternoon. Isolated high-based storms may also develop from the
Black Hills to eastern CO and spread east-southeast. Localized
severe wind/hail will be possible through about dusk.

...Eastern Great Basin to central MT...
Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the
western periphery of the buoyancy plume across the Intermountain
West and Rockies. Mid-level southwesterlies will be modestly greater
across the eastern Great Basin with peripheral influence of the
northward-moving shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest coast.
This should yield moderate storm motions and a threat for sporadic
severe gusts with high-based convection. 

A similar steep lapse rate environment will extend farther north
into central MT. However, closer proximity to the mid-level ridge
should yield weak deep-layer shear. More pulse-type thunderstorms
are expected here, but a threat for dry microbursts capable of
strong gusts will be possible.

..Grams.. 08/17/2024