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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND UTAH....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the
Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah.  Wind and
hail are the primary threats.

...CA/OR/WA...
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave
trough approaching the coast of northern CA.  This feature will
rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and
evening.  Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern
CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR.  Winds
aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few
supercell storm structures to likely develop.  These storms may pose
a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the
afternoon as they track northward into WA.  Other high-based storms
capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia
Basin of northern OR/central WA as well.

...UT...
A co*pact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate
around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today.  Considerable
coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely acco*pany this
system.  Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring
faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures
capable of damaging winds and hail.  One forecast uncertainty is the
extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon
destabilization.  Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are
expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening.

...Eastern US...
A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with
clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into
the Mid South.  Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk
of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail.  However, perhaps a
more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into
southern OH.  The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will
spread across this area during the afternoon.  CAM guidance has been
consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells
in this region.

..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024