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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with a marginal severe threat, will be
possible on Monday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, North Carolina, and
from the central to the northern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the southern
and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances
southeastward toward the middle Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints
across most of the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina are forecast to
be in the 60s F, with 70+ surface dewpoints confined to the
immediate Atlantic coast. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of
instability will likely develop near and ahead of the front, and in
the post-frontal airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form within these areas as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Although low-level lapse rates will beco*e steep in many areas by
afternoon, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak.
The instability could still be strong enough for a marginal severe
threat. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts could occur near and
around peak heating.

...Central to Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the Central High
Plains and northern Plains on Monday. An axis of instability will
likely develop during the day to the west of the ridge, from eastern
Colorado northward into eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor,
thunderstorms are expected to form in some areas due to
topographical forcing in the central and northern Rockies. More
isolated storms will be possible in the lower elevations of the
central and northern High Plains. Forecast soundings across the
central and northern High Plains have steep low to mid-level lapse
rates and sufficient deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat.
Relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads could enhance
downdrafts associated with high-based storms. Hail could also
acco*pany the stronger cells, especially further west near the
higher terrain.

...Ark-La-Tex...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
Ark-La-Tex on Monday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
forecast from northeast Texas into Louisiana, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, low-level lapse rates will beco*e steep. This
co*bined with moderate deep-layer shear may support an isolated
severe threat. Although there is some uncertainty concerning
convective coverage, the forecast environment should be enough for a
few marginally severe storms.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2024