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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat,
will be possible on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
westward into the Southeast, and in parts of the central  and
northern Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast
An upper-level trough will move across the Ohio Valley and southern
Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front
will approach the Mid Atlantic Seaboard, and move into the
Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid
70s F, will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
midday. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms are expected to
form in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.
Additional storms appear likely to develop further to the east near
the front and across the moist sector ahead of the front. Current
model forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability, with
MLCAPE potentially above 2000 J/kg, may develop in parts of the
Carolinas. Forecast soundings across eastern North Carolina around
21Z show some directional shear below 850 mb, with speed shear in
the mid-levels, resulting in 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot
range. In addition, lapse rates are forecast to beco*e steep, with
0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8 C/km in the mid afternoon. This
should be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The wind profile
will favor multicells with isolated wind-damage potential.

...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Sunday across the lower
to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A front is forecast to
move southward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast States. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate to
strong instability. As low-level convergence increases along and
ahead of the front, thunderstorms are expected to form in the early
to mid afternoon. Storms will likely expand in coverage, moving
southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z from southern Arkansas
southeastward into central Mississippi have MLCAPE reaching the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot
range. 0-3 km lapse-rates are forecast to peak near 8 C/km during
the afternoon. This will be favorable for an isolated severe threat,
with isolated supercells possible. However, multicell may be the
prevalent storm mode. Rotating storms will have potential for
isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any
cell that can beco*e organized.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will be in place on Sunday from the central
Rockies into the northern High Plains. An axis of instability is
forecast to develop to the east of the ridge from western Kansas
north-northwestward into eastern Montana. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms may form as temperatures
warm during the day. Model forecasts Sunday afternoon along and near
the instability axis have surface dewpoints around 60 F, steep low
to mid-level lapse rates, and relatively large surface-dewpoint
temperature spreads. This would be favorable for strong outflow
gusts with isolated high-based storms in areas with sufficient
instability. Hail will also be possible, mainly within rotating
cells that co*e out of higher terrain, where the steepest mid-level
lapse rates are forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2024