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SPC MD 1922

SPC MD 1922

[html]MD 1922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
       
MD 1922 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162020Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show
thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping
has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew
points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around
40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak
deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with
potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer
shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030
            36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265
            36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934


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Source: SPC MD 1922 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1922.html)