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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains from
early to mid week, as an upper-level trough moves slowly eastward
across the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure, associated with the
trough is forecast to move from the middle to upper Mississippi
Valley on Monday to the middle and upper Atlantic Seaboard by
Wednesday. Due to this high, the airmass across much of the eastern
third of the U.S. will likely beco*e drier and less unstable from
Monday to Wednesday, making conditions less favorable for severe
storms.

Further to the west, a south-to-north corridor of moderate
instability is forecast to develop each day, remaining in a similar
position across the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon and evening to the east of the ridge near
the axis of instability. It appears that deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak near instability axis, which will favor less storm
organization. Still, a marginal severe threat will be possible due
to the strong instability.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. is forecast to move
eastward from the northern Plains on Thursday into the western Great
Lakes region by Friday. An axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains.
Thunderstorms that form each afternoon close the instability axis
will have a chance be severe. Although there is a lot of uncertainty
this far out in the forecast cycle, the subsidence and weaker
deep-layer shear associated with the upper-level ridge, should
negatively impact severe potential. However, instability could be
strong enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly during the
afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday.