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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday
afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi
northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may
also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri
Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi
Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this
moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model
forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000
to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most
areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the
late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be
possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty
winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be
the primary threat with line segments.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians...
An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as
southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is
expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of
maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward
into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist
airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle
Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across
much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat
with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability.
However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are
forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat
will remain marginal.

...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of
this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of
the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to
be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface
temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is
expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during
the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This,
co*bined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated
severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate
instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and
severe gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2024