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Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and
southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152003Z - 152230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT.  One or two supercells may
evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts
and perhaps some potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains
generally weak and/or unclear.  However, a seasonably moist
boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak
surface troughing is beco*ing moderately unstable across parts of
northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in
excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding.  This is
being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling
associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across
the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity.  As the exit region of a
40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the
stronger destabilization, vertical shear is beco*ing increasingly
conducive to supercells.  Although timing of thunderstorm initiation
remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear
possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor
east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border
vicinity.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...to*...

LAT...LON   40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464
            39279575 40219546