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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin
through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend
across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues
to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level
regime through the upco*ing weekend with troughing along the West
Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances
propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy
conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be
minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to
persist across central to western TX where fire activity has
increased amid steadily-drying fuels. 

...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin...
Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase
for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance
shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the
Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the
West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread
after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall.
Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions
into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph
winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the
broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+
mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After
D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper
disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy
downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical
fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. 

...Texas...
Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent
afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the
forecast period across central to western TX. This places
temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some
locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is
driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region,
which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels
will beco*e increasingly available as the heat lingers well into
next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface
pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy
conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited
potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX,
but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore.. 08/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...