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Mesoscale Discussion 1900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles...far northwest
OK...and south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142000Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe downbursts are possible through the
afternoon, though a watch is not expected here. The severe threat
will increase later this afternoon/evening with northeastward
extent.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along a
pre-frontal heat axis/confluence zone extending from the TX
Panhandle northeastward into south-central KS. Over the TX
Panhandle, cumulus is deeper and isolated convective initiation is
underway. During the next few hours, continued
heating/destabilization should aid in isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms along the heat axis, and potentially along
a slow-moving cold front over southwest KS. Surface temperatures
climbing into the upper 90s/lower 100s and associated steep
low-level lapse rates will support strong to locally severe
downbursts with any high-based storms that can initiate through the
afternoon. Modest deep-layer flow/shear (especially from the TX
Panhandle into south-central KS) should generally limit storm
longevity, and generally weak large-scale ascent casts uncertainty
on overall storm coverage. Therefore, a watch is not expected for
this area.

Both instability and deep-layer wind shear increase with
northeastward extent into central/northeast KS, and any storms that
spread/develop into this area will pose a greater severe threat
later this afternoon into the evening.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37449851 35280095 35230148 35370188 35670213 35960211
            36260178 37490047 38149975 38459943 38599922 38629887
            38579848 38219816 37899819 37449851