Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday.
Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a
couple tornadoes may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on
Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a
surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great
Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper
Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. 

...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity...
In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly
flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by
afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS
Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg
range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector
will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a
conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a
relatively broad region. 

The details of convective development and evolution continue to be
uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the
primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet
to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening,
both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat
greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening
from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet
maximum moving through the base of the trough. 

Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the
afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an
increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective
evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could
persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of
any organized severe potential remains uncertain. 

...Eastern NE into western/central IA...
There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within
a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which
would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving
through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal
environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with
moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse
rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized
damaging wind could acco*pany any robust storms within this regime
during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may
be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario
increases.  

...Southern KS into OK...
With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is
expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of
southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak
across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and
steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an
isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can
develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

..Dean.. 08/14/2024