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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Mid-South.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South...
As upper ridging remains suppressed across parts of the Southwest
and southern Plains, an upper trough should continue to progress
slowly eastward over portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest and OH
Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be
present over parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and
related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period.
A weak/occluded surface low beneath the upper cyclone should
likewise develop slowly eastward over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario. An ill-defined front/wind shift is forecast to extend
south-southwestward from this surface low.

Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Friday morning over parts of
the OH Valley. This activity is generally expected to remain
sub-severe and further weaken through the morning/early afternoon as
it moves eastward into a less unstable airmass. Some recovery is
expected to the west of the early-day convection and ahead of the
weak front, with a rather moist low-level airmass forecast to be in
place from portions of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and
Mid-South vicinity. While deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually
weaken with southward extent, a broad area of at least moderate
instability should develop in tandem with daytime heating along and
east/southeast of the front. Any thunderstorms that do develop could
beco*e strong to severe with mainly a hail/wind threat given the
forecast environment, but considerable uncertainty remains
concerning details of convective initiation and development. Only
weak low-level convergence along the surface front also lends
uncertainty in where greater severe thunderstorm coverage may occur.
Therefore, for now have included a broad Marginal Risk for Friday.
But, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if
confidence increases in an MCS/cluster occurring.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2024