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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the
Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the
work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among
long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will
gradually beco*e established through the weekend with ridging over
the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern
will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western
TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much
of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the
weekend. 

...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a
shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA
coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show
modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high
probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur
to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry
thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region,
these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern.

...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada...
As the longwave trough beco*es established along/off the West Coast,
shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate
into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards
slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend,
resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support
breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain
very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities
have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance
shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar
conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence
in the coverage of such conditions is limited. 

...Texas...
Hot conditions will gradually beco*e more expansive through the
forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where
temperatures in excess of 105 F will be co*mon. While the Red River
Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain
chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of
central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have
been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts
should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available
fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind
speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be
monitored given the warming/drying trend.

..Moore.. 08/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...