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Mesoscale Discussion 1891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...parts of southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131753Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A growing and gradually organizing cluster of storms may
pose increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts across the
South Carolina Lowcountry through 4-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently begun to intensify in a
small cluster along a strengthening surface cold pool now south of
the Columbia area.  This is occurring beneath modest (including
around 30 kt near 500 mb) west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, and
along a weak south-southwestward advancing front to the lee of the
southern Appalachians.  The frontal zone extends eastward into
coastal areas northeast of Charleston, and is forecast to slowly
approach the Savannah area through late afternoon.  

Although forecast soundings across this region exhibit notable
relative warmth, and weak lapse rates, within a layer roughly from
700-500 mb, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content
(including lower/mid 70s F dew points) along the front appears to be
contributing to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg
with insolation.  As modest low-level inflow and lift along the
strengthening surface cold pool continue to overco*e the inhibition,
 further upscale convective growth appears possible across the
Lowcountry vicinity of South Carolina through 20-22Z.  Gradually,
this may be acco*panied by strengthening rear inflow and potential
for strong to severe surface gusts, despite the weak low-level
ambient wind fields.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33598124 33488060 33037966 32538008 32318073 32888151
            33418229 33778204 33598124