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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of
the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and
central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough
on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a
positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will
shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the
period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak
mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst
for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the
Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. 

...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains...
Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from
the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread
thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and
thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah
into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear
should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in
this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat
amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. 

An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern
Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection
will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate
instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively
weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is
forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms
and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may
congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across
southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening
low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show
sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during
the overnight period. 

...South Carolina...
A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid
70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate
destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will
approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak
mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe
storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg
and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong
to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary
threat will be damaging wind.

...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri...
Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots
across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As
isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will
increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast
around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization
including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy
rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe
wind may be possible.

..Bentley.. 08/12/2024